Election 2018: Italy’s Defining Moment
The Italian general election is just a few days away. According to the latest polls, not a single political party or established coalition currently possesses enough support to govern alone. What the final outcome will be is anyone’s guess. Amid the heated political rhetoric, Professor Alessandro Chiaramonte gave a comprehensive overview of the Italian political landscape in the “Italian Politics Adesso!” dialogue on February 26. He discussed the country’s ever changing electoral laws, the current crop of candidates, polling numbers, and post-election scenarios. But no matter the outcome, Chiaramonte was not exactly optimistic in his outlook. The next few years “will be a very difficult time for Italy,” he said.
In order to understand how Italy has arrived at this point, it’s important to go back to 1993. This year marked a major shift in Italian politics. A referendum on reforming the country’s electoral law was approved, shifting Italy away from a purely proportional system to a mixed system, with both proportional and majoritarian elements. The new system encouraged the formation of coalitions, whereas previously voters selected only single parties. This gave voters greater power in choosing the prime minister and the composition of the governing party (or parties).
Twenty years later, this system would be upended, not by a popular referendum or new law, but by a new political force: The Five Star Movement (M5S). Center-right and center-left coalitions had governed Italy for the past twenty years, but M5S represented a new type of anti-establishment political party. Courting disaffection over past government scandals and the poor handling of the financial crisis, the party gained an astonishing 17% of seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. Although the center-left coalition gained an absolute majority of seats in the Chamber of Deputies, they did not obtain enough seats in the Senate. Consequently, no party had a clear governing majority.
Five years and three prime ministers later, there is yet again a new electoral law. Passed in 2017, this law creates a mixed system, whereby 36.8% of seats in both houses of Parliament are single-member districts and the other 63.2% of seats are multi-member districts. Seats in single-member districts are allocated to the person with the most votes, while in multi-member districts seats are allocated proportionally. 2018 is the first time an election will be held under this new law. It remains to be seen whom this law will benefit the most.
Five Star Movement's leader Luigi Di Maio (Source: L'Espresso http://espresso.repubblica.it/palazzo/2018/01/29/news/le-promesse-impossibili-di-luigi-di-maio-e-del-programma-del-movimento-5-stelle-1.317656)
The competitors in this election represent a wide variety of political beliefs, but most notable is the high profile of many formerly obscure anti-establishment parties. The center-left coalition is led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who resigned two years ago when his own push to reform Italy’s electoral law failed. The coalition supports raising the minimum wage and increasing government spending to boost economic recovery. The center-right coalition is led by another former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi. The coalition is composed of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, the far-right Northern League, Us With Italy, and the Brothers of Italy. Notable proposals of the center-right coalition include a new flat tax system, curbing illegal immigration, providing a minimum income of €1,000 per month, and abolishing previous labor and pension reforms.
M5S, led by Luigi Di Maio, is the largest anti-establishment force in the race. M5S supports a minimum basic income, repeals of labor and pension reforms, increased government spending, and raising taxes on energy companies. Finally, there is the Free and Equal (LeU) alliance, led by Pietro Grasso, which is composed of a few smaller center-left and far-left parties. Several minor parties are also running candidates, but none have formed coalitions with enough clout to have much impact.
No party or coalition currently has enough support to govern alone. The center-right coalition has the highest poll numbers, with 34.6 percent support, however M5S has the most support for a single party, at 29.4 percent. What makes predictions about this election so difficult, as Chiaramonte noted, is that voter turnout in 2013 hit a record low. Given wide disaffection with the political system, 2018 may see even lower turnout.
Chiaramonte laid out possible post-election scenarios, but stressed the uncertainty of these predictions. The center-right, coasting off Berlusconi’s continued popularity in many areas of the country, could pull off an upset and win outright. However, given the coalition’s current poll numbers, this scenario seems unlikely. The center-left coalition could align with Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Us With Italy, to ensure that the far right Northern League, Brothers With Italy, and M5S are kept out of the government. This alliance is not out of the question, but the center-left and Berlusconi have significant political differences that would need to be overcome in order to form a government.
There is a possibility of a “grand coalition,” composed of the alliance just mentioned, plus M5S and LeU. All of these parties combined would no doubt have enough seats to govern, but it’s highly unlikely that all of these wildly different parties could be pulled together effectively. Even if this “grand coalition” could be formed, it would most likely serve as a “caretaker” government until the next election. The center-left, LeU, and M5S could form a government together, much like the CDU-SPD alliance in Germany, however M5S’s reluctance to join forces with other parties would make this alliance difficult to form.
The “nightmare scenario,” as Chiaramonte put it, would be an alliance of M5S, the Northern League, and Brothers of Italy. This coalition would be comprised entirely of anti-establishment, eurosceptic parties that have little previous governing experience. This scenario could pose a similar challenge as the previous one, since M5S has not shown much willingness to work with other parties. However, unlike the center-left, M5S has a lot more in common with the far-right parties, both of which also style themselves as anti-establishment. They are all eurosceptic, anti-immigration, and supporters of non-mainstream economic policies.
Chiaramonte notes that voter turnout will be key in deciding the winner, if there is one at all. Southern regions, many former center-right strongholds, have seen a surge in support for M5S, even as the party has lost support in northern and central Italy. How well they perform in the south will be crucial to their chances in forming a government. It’s important to remember that no matter what happens, few promises will be kept by any of the parties. “These aren’t really promises, they’re lies,” Chiaramonte said. The center-right’s program alone would cost roughly one fifth of Italy’s entire GDP, an impossible sum to spend for a country already drowning in debt.
Now, as the day approaches, all anyone can do is wait. One thing is for sure though, the next few years, for better or for worse, are going to be a wild ride.
