Negotiations Are Underway, But There Is No End in Sight

Since the election of the heads of both the lower and upper chamber of the Italian Parliament on March 24, informal negotiations on the formation of a new government among the winning parties in the general election are in full swing.

Formal consultations with Italian President Sergio Mattarella started on Wednesday, April 3. Sergio Mattarella met separately with the new head of the Senate Maria Elisabetta Casellati and the new head of the Chamber of Deputies Roberto Fico, as well as with former President and Senator for life Giorgio Napolitano. He also met with representatives of majority parties and of the so-called “mixed groups”, which gather all minority parties who do not have enough members to form a group within the parliament and single members who do not belong to any party or coalition.

Italian President Sergio Mattarella. Source: RaiNews

As a member of Forza Italia, which ran in the right-wing coalition with the League and Fratelli D’Italia in the general election, Casellati has stated multiple times that the bonds between the League and Forza Italia will remain strong. This may significantly hinder the formation of a government, since the 5-Star-Movement's leadership (the largest party) has made clear that they would only be open to forming a coalition with either the League or the Democratic Party, with 5-Star-Movement leader Luigi di Maio as Prime Minister. The leader of the League Matteo Salvini stated that the League would be open to entering a coalition with a different Prime Minister and asked the 5-Star-Movement to soften its stance. However, he also made clear that the League still aims to form a government led by the right-wing coalition including Forza Italia, which won the majority of total votes, involving the 5-Star-Movement as well. Silvio Berlusconi, the leader of Forza Italia, took a more rigid stance, stating that Forza Italia would only accept a government with Matteo Salvini as Prime Minister.

According to many experts, the 5-Star-Movement’s plan is to let consultations drag on until next summer when the longstanding stalemate would make new elections inevitable and the party might be more likely to gain enough votes to govern on its own, as the latest polls suggest. Paradoxically, Matteo Salvini’s League may have no interest in breaking the deadlock either and could even benefit from it. As a matter of fact, the League may run with Berlusconi’s Forza Italia during the upcoming regional elections which will be held in the coming months (the first will be held in Friuli-Venezia Giulia on April 29). If, as happened during the general election, the League wins a lot more votes than Forza Italia, there may be a good chance that the right-wing coalition would recognize Matteo Salvini, instead of Berlusconi, as its leader and enter into a coalition with the 5-Star-Movement or push for a government led by the right-coalition exclusively.

However, impending deadlines in Brussels are one reason to argue against dragging out consultations too long. On June 28 and 29, European heads of state and government will meet in the European Council to set the EU’s overall political direction and agenda for the coming months. Several critical issues for Italy will be discussed, i.e. a reform of the EU asylum system, issues affecting the euro and the fiscal compact (the Treaty providing the fiscal governance framework of the euro area), and the EU budget for the next 7 years. Will Sergio Mattarella let Italy miss the chance to weigh in on those issues?