Italy's Political Stalemate: Toward a Turning Point?
After two months of political impasse since March’s general election, Italian voters have lost all hope that the parties’ frantic negotiations will ever result in a new government and, while the intriguing plot kept them on the edge of their seats for a while, their mood has now shifted from boredom to anxiety in light of Italy’s uncertain future. One thing is certain: No one would like to be in the shoes of Italian President Sergio Mattarella.
So far, in spite of both Heads of the Chambers’ attempt to mediate among the parliament members to form a government at Mattarella’s request, none of the main parties have been willing to compromise (check out our previous brief). On the one hand, the Five-Star-Movement unsuccessfully insisted on the League ditching their center-right coalition with Berlusconi’s Forza Italia. On the other hand, the Democratic Party divided over whether to accept a coalition with the Five-Star-Movement and eventually abandoned any further negotiations.
That’s why, after five more days of fruitless meetings, Italian President Sergio Mattarella announced on Monday that he would appoint a temporary 'caretaker' government. The government, which would be led by a non-partisan leader and include technocratic ministers, should give the main parties enough time to further negotiate and eventually agree on a new government. The alternative would be early voting to be held either in the summer, with the risk of low participation, or in the fall. In both cases, elections would be likely to produce the same stalemate. “It would be the first time in the history of Italy that a legislature ends before even starting”, Mattarella pointed out.
Most importantly, as Mattarella stated, the technocratic government would be able to enact urgent financial measures to counteract the increase in the VAT rates from 22% to 25% scheduled to start in January 2019. The VAT increase, whose implementation had already been postponed by one year, is part of the so called stability law, i.e. the main measure introduced by the Italian government to manage the public administration’s income and spending for the next three years. Even in the case that new elections produced a majority in the parliament, it may be too late for the new government to counteract the potentially negative effects of the VAT hikes.
A provocative graffiti that appeared in Rome after new negotiations between the Five-Star-Movement and the league started (Source: La Stampa)
The leaders of both parties that prevailed in the general elections, Five Star Movement’s Luigi Di Maio and League’s Matteo Salvini, have clearly stated that they would never support a technocratic government, but prefer new elections as early as this summer. Then, on Wednesday, with a new coup de théâtre, they informed Mattarella that they were holding last-minute negotiations with the aim to reach a deal within the next 24 hours. Mattarella agreed on giving the parties time until Sunday to come up with details for forming a new government.
The day after, Berlusconi officially stepped aside, announcing that his party Forza Italia will not support a government including the Five-Star-Movement, but wouldn't veto it either. Currently, Mattarella is meeting both Di Maio and Salvini separetely, after talks between the two took place non-stop all over the weekend.
According to Di Maio’s right-hand man Vincenzo Spadafora , “the parties will most likely agree on a third candidate as Prime Minister” and “a small government made of less than 20 ministers will be formed”. Will this really be a turning point in Italy’s political nightmare?
