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Anti-Establishment Parties Sweep Italian Elections
Matteo Salvini | Miguel Medina/AFP via Getty Images, from Politico Europe
The Italian election is technically over, but the long, arduous process of forming a government has only just begun. No party or coalition obtained a majority in either the Chamber of Deputies or the Senate, resulting in a hung parliament. Despite having no clear winner, some parties definitely have more to be happy about than others. Italy’s most prominent anti-establishment parties did exceptionally well, dealing a huge blow to Italy’s traditional center-right and center-left parties. The populist Five Star Movement (M5S), led by Luigi Di Maio, received the largest vote share for a single party. The far-right League (sometimes referred to as the Northern League), led by Matteo Salvini, also did very well, emerging as the largest right-wing party. Polls indicated that former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right Forza Italia was slightly in the lead among right-wing parties, but now it looks like any right-wing coalition may be led Salvini rather than Berlusconi. The incumbent Democratic Party (PD), led by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, had an overall poor showing, making the chances of a left-wing coalition government unlikely. In any case, it looks like M5S and the League will have the most sway in who becomes Italy’s next prime minister. For Italy’s centrists, it’s a bitter defeat.
Two big questions arise from these results: Will Salvini now lead the center-right coalition, given the League’s strong showing? And will M5S work with other parties to form a coalition? These questions are not easily answered, but their implications are enormous. The center-right coalition, composed of Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, Salvini’s League, Brothers of Italy, and Us With Italy, have the largest vote share in total, obtaining over 37% of the votes for seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. This result was widely predicted, but the League’s dominance was not. Berlusconi was widely seen as the most likely kingmaker in the formation of a right-wing coalition government, however this may no longer be the case. If Salvini ends up leading the coalition, chances of a “grand alliance” with the center-left coalition are practically zero. This was already unlikely, even with Berlusconi at the helm, but it would not have been completely unprecedented for the two major establishment forces to come together to keep M5S or the League from power. This is now no longer a possibility.
With regards to M5S, it remains to be seen who they will align with, if they do so at all. Previously, the party has shown little interest in forming coalitions. Leader Luigi Di Maio did, however, say back in December that if the party did not reach 40%, he would be open to a coalition. The party has obtained roughly 32% in both houses of Parliament. While the League and M5S do have plenty of differences, they share an anti-establishment, anti-immigration, and eurosceptic platform. It seems highly unlikely that M5S would align itself with PD or Forza Italia, especially since it was created explicitly to oppose these parties. An alliance with the League, however, is not completely out of the question.
This alliance is exactly what NYU Florence Professor Alessandro Chiaramonte termed a “nightmare scenario.” A nightmare for migrants, the country’s finances, and the European Union. The views of both M5S and the League regarding the European Union are of particular concern. Although immigration has been the focal point of this election campaign, the effects of this hypothetical “nightmare” coalition gaining power would be most severe in terms of Italy’s relationship with the European Union. Salvini has said himself that “the single currency system is bound to end.” M5S softened its anti-euro stance during the campaign, but it has nevertheless remained a eurosceptic party.
It may take months to form a coalition with enough seats to govern, and in the meantime voters and officials in Brussels will be holding their breath. Italy and Europe are entering uncharted territory, but one thing is for sure: populism is not going away anytime soon. The role it plays in the political landscape may very well determine the future of Italy and Europe for decades to come. For additional coverage on the implications of the Italian election for Europe, stay tuned for my next article.